War and Peace

Current plans coming under the ISI’s plan of action for the infiltration of Indian borders to acquire Kashmir include, usage of false propaganda to turn the international community against India, and the integration of civilians to turn the tide of Kashmiris against Indian rule, and so on. However, unless these plans are executed with utmost perfection, they could spark a full-fledged war that will paint Pakistan as a bad example in the entire international community.

Considering the economy of the country at this current point which is the Winter of 1998, it has hit a low due to multiple political shifts of power. There is a plunge in GDP growth rate to four percent. A debt crisis has also been triggered in Pakistan at this point, due to large external and fiscal deficits. This has forced the government to borrow money from external sources. Another layer of sanctions has been imposed on the country in October 1999 due to the overthrowing of the elected government. These sanctions bring about restrictions on military-specific financial planning and economic assistance. However, the country’s repaying abilities are not going up hence creating a vicious cycle of debt.

Yet another deep impact that the Kargil war will have on the economy of Pakistan is the straining of trade-relations with other countries. The blame of beginning a bloody war with numerous casualties can lead to Pakistan losing all of the profit it gains monetarily and in-kind via import and export with many countries. Some important products that are primarily available due to imports include rice, leather, surgical instruments, and raw cotton. To hypothetically lose all of these resources simply due to war can prove to be very unhealthy. The following graph showcases a clear decline in Pakistan’s export profits since 1996. Going into a state of war will have an obvious implication of even lower drops in the same. While these funds could directly be channelled into paying off the debts of the country, they will have to now be used for military planning.

The obvious flaws can be seen in the in-depth analysis of stopping or delaying vehicles that are taking supplies to the Indian Army. Taking into consideration the topological barriers that Kashmir poses to Pakistan, specialised transport systems would be required in order to ensure minimum casualties in terms of human capital. Yet another brunt in this project would be to ensure the perfect training of what is expected to be a large number of troops.

With this picture in mind, we must also bring up the additional costs of a series of insurgencies in various parts of India that are already going through a crisis in socio-political matters. Taking, for example, the North-Eastern part of India, transport from Pakistan to this area can be time and fund consuming. Currently, the North East of India is waging under the war of several separatist factions each with their own agendas. While some of these groups aspire to be under religious law, others aim for regional autonomy or complete independence. This has led to a multitude of clashes between the indigenous peoples and migrants of both legal and illegal nature. Yet another point of contention is between the states and the central government. If Pakistan also decides to highlight the human rights violations that constantly take place in the state of Jammu and Kashmir due to the presence of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), they would require the sending in of radicalised civilians, which requires more expenditure since, in case of casualties, the state of Pakistan is required to provide remuneration to the families. However, the plausibility of this plan of action is questionable as the AFSPA allows the Indian Army to recognise even radical citizens as non-state actors, which would only bring the blame back to Pakistan.

Another important aspect of action towards India includes an increase in the requirement of weaponry and hardware in terms of both quality and quantity. This would entail the requirement of access to the hardware storage unit present in Balochistan. After this, specialised equipment would be required to transport these weapons, along with ensuring that the troops carrying them are well-versed with their function and control.

A huge impact that the Kargil war might have is a change in the thought process that acts of violence will be the only legitimate source of intimidating other countries, especially India. In the long term, this will only act to further the country into the cycle of debt, unless drastic changes occur in the economy, which seems highly unlikely in the current light of the country.
(edited by Vaishnavi Deepak)